August 12, 2024
Investors have a lot to digest following the early August market selloff.1 To obtain a better read on recession odds, our view is investors should pay more attention to the labor market and less on the day-to-day swings in interest rate expectations. We break down our favored employment indicators in this paper. Our general takeaway is the labor market to this point has been normalizing off historically strong levels. An economic soft landing is our base case, but with some downside risk to employment.
(1) As of 13 August 2024. (2) FactSet. Monthly data through July 2024. Continuing claims as a percentage of labor force comes from the ratio of unemployment insurance claimants to total number of workers
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