Investor concerns around private credit and its exposure to AI disruption are justified. Private credit lending is substantial, while bank lending to private credit has also grown. However, our view is that the impact of private credit risks on financial markets is likely to be limited, as we believe the amount lent is not overwhelming relative to the size of the economy. On the broader issue of AI disruption, innovation (e.g., railroads, automobiles, the internet) has almost always caused market jitters but has generally led to better long-term growth and economic outcomes, both of which should be good for risk assets.
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